Liquidity still slowing, but policy makers lately intervened: Fed RMP + Treasury buybacks added US$600bn to money markets since October, temporarily reflating tech and crypto. This is band-aid support, not a new cycle. ‘True’ signals are ‘Risk Off’ Yield curve flattening is a strong ‘Risk Off’ signal: 10-2-year spreads and the SOFR-2y spread both point … Read More

Black Swans Vs Blue Owls • Declining Global Liquidity Signals ‘Risk Off’ Shift: The Global Liquidity Index (GLI ) has peaked and entered a downswing, pushing market conditions towards a ‘Risk Off’ environment. This systemic downturn, rather than the oil spike alone, is the primary force eroding portfolio performance and explains growing stresses in private … Read More

Global Liquidity Has Turned Lower: The End of Easy Money? Three narratives dominate markets: (1) the impact of presumptive Fed Chair Kevin Warsh; (2) the ‘Great Debasement’ trade and (3) Asian capital flows vis-à-vis gold, the US dollar and global bonds. We consider the first is at best neutral for risk markets; the second is … Read More