Liquidity still slowing, but policy makers lately intervened: Fed RMP + Treasury buybacks added US$600bn to money markets since October, temporarily reflating tech and crypto. This is band-aid support, not a new cycle. ‘True’ signals are ‘Risk Off’ Yield curve flattening is a strong ‘Risk Off’ signal: 10-2-year spreads and the SOFR-2y spread both point … Read More

The Turning Point? The World is shifting toward a multipolar system defined by US-China rivalry, regional blocs, and tightening Global Liquidity. This will lead to a more challenging ‘Risk Off’ environment for financial markets in 2026. Our overarching theme is the battle for capital and currency supremacy between the US and China, leading to a … Read More

Warning, There Is No Debasement Trade What will dominate in 2026: trend or cycle? In bull markets investors see only positive structural trends; in bear markets they are unexpectedly skewered by downward cycles. There are clear trends in markets today, such as the widely popular ‘Great Debasement’ trade, but we fear that they will be … Read More