Liquidity still slowing, but policy makers lately intervened: Fed RMP + Treasury buybacks added US$600bn to money markets since October, temporarily reflating tech and crypto. This is band-aid support, not a new cycle. ‘True’ signals are ‘Risk Off’
Yield curve flattening is a strong ‘Risk Off’ signal: 10-2-year spreads and the SOFR-2y spread both point to tighter conditions ahead. Falling term premia = de-risk now
China’s PBoC also just surprised to the downside: After months of liquidity injections that drove Yuan gold prices, late-April shows a sharp slowdown. Near-term headwind for gold and Global Liquidity
‘Speculation’ phase of investment cycle delivers volatile, unreliable returns. We are not buying this rally
